Rabobank recently published a report that analyzes how avian influenza has changed and challenged the global poultry industry, specifically in international trade.
The report shows that global trade prices and streams are estimated to be stressed for the rest of 2015. Experts have stated that long-term impact could significantly impact communities and economies, as several trade bans in importing countries have stopped all trade of breeding stock. The analysts estimated that producers in balanced market regions will still have healthy margins.
These worsening conditions make supply growth discipline vital, which has been demonstrated in areas with healthy market balances such as Brazil, Japan, South Africa and the U.S. In these countries, the poultry industry still has good margins.
Rabobank emphasized that there is a serious need for global approaches that will address avian influenza. The bank has stressed there must be strict biosecurity standards and that there should also be industry business model adjustments to show a more realistic picture of the new market.
“Poultry industry fundamentals are facing meaningful headwinds with stronger than expected feed prices due to a strong US dollar, increased competition from falling pork prices and restrictions on trade,” Rabobank animal protein analyst Nan-Dirk Mulder said. “Prices for whole chicken, leg quarters and chicken feet are declining further, while breast meat prices remain relatively strong.”