New ECDC modeling tool used to predict HIV incidence
The new modeling tool, which is available both online and as a downloadable desktop application, will help health officials and researchers better understanding local HIV epidemics. This will be beneficial in terms of distributing health products and analyzing surveillance data.
Now public health professionals, epidemiologists and HIV program managers can determine the HIV incidence within a specific population. This figure is different compared to the quantity of new HIV cases that are reported in surveillance systems.
In addition, the application can help to support the application, planning and evaluation of various prevention and treatment programs for HIV. Lastly, the tool can help officials make better strategies to decrease the HIV epidemic’s burden at the local, national and international level.
The tool includes estimates of the annual number of new HIV infections, the number of people who have HIV infections but have not yet been diagnosed, the number of people who need treatment (as determined by CD4 cell counts), and the average time between initial infection and official diagnosis.