Bioradar UK, Ltd., announced on Tuesday that it predicts a third H1N1 Swine Flu pandemic will occur in the upcoming flu season, based on analyses it conducted of 35,529 sequences in two H1N1 Replikins genes.
Bioradar accurately predicted the Swine Flu outbreak of 2009 by analyzing genetic changes in H1N1 Replikins genes at the end of the 2008 flu season. Through the same genetic sequencing processes and by using its Replikins gene FluForecast analysis methods, Bioradar warned that another Swine Flu pandemic is on its way.
Bioradar noted that a correlation exists between the quantitative reproduction cycle of three specific H1N1 Replikins genes and an H1N1 pandemic. Researchers noted that the quantitative reproductive cycles of these genes changed in 2008, before the outbreak. The same changes in quantitative reproductive cycles were observed this year, which Bioradar researchers believe is an indication of an upcoming pandemic.
Further analyses conducted by researchers included analyzing the H1N1 Replikins genes for lethality and infectivity. The Replikin Count in the Replikins Infectivity Gene increased to 8.9+/-2.3. The FluForecast Replikin Count also increased to 6.3+/-2.3, a similar level to the Count in 2008, before the second pandemic.
The researchers noted that a Replikin Count greater than 4.0 is an indication of an upcoming outbreak. Data from a recent series of sequencing is similar to that of the second outbreak, including the Replikins Infectivity Gene increasing to more than 90 percent. This year's Replikins Infectivity Gene is 97 percent, with the 2009 pandemic recorded at 96.4 percent.
Bioradar researchers are recommending pharmaceutical companies take advantage of the early detection of the pandemic and begin developing and testing vaccines.