Researchers predict U.S. TB cases counts by country of origin

Scientists from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's Division of Tuberculosis Elimination recently presented a report that predicts U.S. tuberculosis cases based on foreign-born countries of origin.

Rachel Yelk Woodruff, Carla Winston and Roque Miramontes presented the poster during the 2012 National TB Workshop in Atlanta, where it won first prize in the National Tuberculosis Controllers Association poster competition.

The report describes an analytic method that would predict how many TB cases are diagnosed in the U.S. from the top five countries of birth through the year 2020.

The researchers log-transformed TB cases counts reported to the National Tuberculosis Surveillance System from 2000-2010. The scientists used linear regression to calculate predicted case counts, annual case counts and 95 percent prediction intervals for the years 2011-2020 for foreign-born cases, foreign-born cases from the top five countries of birth, U.S.-born TB cases and foreign-born cases excluding the top five countries of birth.

The report predicts a continued increase in the proportion of TB cases diagnosed in the U.S. among foreign-born persons and decreases in foreign-born TB cases and U.S.-born TB cases between 2010 to 2020. The researchers also found a potential increase in cases from India and China and a potential decline in cases from Vietnam.

The researchers concluded that the prediction of foreign-born cases of TB could assist TB control programs in concentrating limited resources where they can have the biggest impact.